Italy July unemployment rate 5.8% (expected 5.6%); previous reading revised to 5.8% from 5.7%.

RaboResearch said energy prices have continued to rise, yet U.S. and European 5y5y inflation expectations remain roughly anchored at central-bank targets. The correlation between energy moves and long-term inflation pricing is weakening; markets currently appear to trust central banks to keep long-term inflation anchored. RaboResearch offers an alternative: long-term inflation expectations may be shifting to reflect central-bank credibility, fiscal policy and institutional risk more than short-term oil shocks. It highlights fiscal-dominance risk — if markets doubt central-bank independence, long-term inflation pricing could undergo a sudden, non-linear institutional repricing. For markets, the current stable 5y5y supports policy credibility; but if energy stays elevated and fiscal risks rise, whether long-end inflation expectations and term premia remain muted will be the key watchpoint, and long-dated USTs’ reaction to oil/inflation shocks may better reveal if anchoring still holds than monthly CPI prints.

分析师Christophe Barraud表示，8月，韩国出口（按工作日调整后）同比增长72.5%，其中芯片出口飙升209%，计算机出货量暴涨419%。此外，半导体目前已占该国出口近半，并解释了近期出口增量的绝大部分。HBM、DRAM、NAND、服务器和计算设备均受益于AI和数据中心支出的爆发式增长。然而， 这些数字不应被解读为全球广泛复苏的证据，因为韩国的几个传统行业仍远缺乏活力。韩国正日益成为全球AI资本支出的“温度计”。 对韩国央行而言，这些数据明显强化了其鹰派转向。 该行已连续两次加息，将2026年经济增长预测上调至3.3%，同时仍面临相对顽固的核心通胀。在增长如此强劲的背景下，几乎没有理由急于降息。这也为韩元提供支撑——巨额贸易顺差、更紧缩的货币政策和更强势的货币有助于降低输入性通胀。只要超大规模企业及生态其余部分保持激进的支出，这一势头就极具支撑力；但这种集中度越高，一旦资本支出放缓、内存短缺缓解或定价逆转，其宏观冲击就可能越大。