San Francisco Fed data show US total factor productivity (TFP) rose 1.10% over
the four quarters through Q2, down from 1.61% in Q1. Utilization‑adjusted TFP
fell 0.42% over the same period, with a single‑quarter annualized decline of
2.19% in Q2. Aggregate data do not yet show an AI-driven productivity jump.
Federal Reserve research says AI remains in a phase of capability improvement,
capital spending and firm adoption: use is broadening but shallow, and
task-level efficiency gains have not translated via process reengineering into
firm- or macro-level output. Historically, general-purpose technology investment
and productivity gains often materialize only after a multi-year lag.
