ING expects the RBNZ to raise the official cash rate (OCR) 25bps to 2.75% on Sept. 2. At July’s hike the RBNZ said it may still need to withdraw further monetary stimulus. In its May forecasts—based on higher oil assumptions—the bank signalled rates could reach 3.0% by year-end and remain around that level through 2027. Current market pricing tracks the RBNZ’s 2026 outlook but is more hawkish for 2027 despite softer energy prices. A September hike is fully priced and markets expect one more move

ING expects the RBNZ to raise the official cash rate (OCR) 25bps to 2.75% on Sept. 2. At July’s hike the RBNZ said it may still need to withdraw further monetary stimulus. In its May forecasts—based on higher oil assumptions—the bank signalled rates could reach 3.0% by year-end and remain around that level through 2027. Current market pricing tracks the RBNZ’s 2026 outlook but is more hawkish for 2027 despite softer energy prices. A September hike is fully priced and markets expect one more move before year-end; OIS curves imply about 50bps more tightening, taking rates to ~3.50% by mid-2027. ING sees dovish risk ahead of the meeting and judges the RBNZ faces a high threshold to validate the market’s aggressive tightening expectations.