Major banks and a Reuters survey expect the RBNZ to raise the OCR by 25bps in
September. ASB projects a peak OCR around 3.3%; Westpac sees the OCR at about 3%
by year‑end with a peak near 3.3%. CITIGROUP expects a 25bp move and says the
RBNZ would still need three further hikes to return the OCR to neutral. A
Reuters survey likewise forecasts 25bps in September, with over two‑thirds of
respondents anticipating at least one more hike and year‑end OCR of 3% or
higher. ANZ expects 25bps in September and likely another hike in October,
saying the November election is unlikely to prevent a return to neutral. BNZ
forecasts 25bps in September followed by 25bp increases at each meeting through
May 2027, taking the OCR to a 4% peak. ING notes its May economic forecasts
implied a year‑end OCR of about 3% and a flat path next year. Brown Brothers
Harriman supports a 25bp move and flags scope for further tightening given
inflation remaining above target and stronger domestic growth.
