Maybank economists say this super El Niño is likely to have a milder impact on Thailand’s economy and headline inflation than the 2015–16 event. Prolonged hot, dry conditions will hit agricultural output, but fresh food accounts for only about 8% of the CPI today versus ~10% in 2015–16. Thailand’s economy is increasingly driven by electronics and digital sectors, reducing sensitivity to an agricultural downturn. Maybank forecasts GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, with average headline

Maybank economists say this super El Niño is likely to have a milder impact on Thailand’s economy and headline inflation than the 2015–16 event. Prolonged hot, dry conditions will hit agricultural output, but fresh food accounts for only about 8% of the CPI today versus ~10% in 2015–16. Thailand’s economy is increasingly driven by electronics and digital sectors, reducing sensitivity to an agricultural downturn. Maybank forecasts GDP growth of 2.4% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, with average headline inflation of 1.6% in 2026 and 1.8% in 2027.