CITIC Securities says whether the Fed hikes in September is not decisive for
long-end rates or equity direction. In an era of rapid AI development, demand
for government bonds as a traditional safe asset is likely structurally
declining; the sell-off in US and European sovereigns reflects economic and
market dynamics, not a reliable signal for near-term equity moves. Overall,
markets remain range-bound; investors should not panic over overseas rates or
overreact to stronger-than-expected market responses to rate moves. The deeper
driver of widening long-end domestic-foreign spreads is a capital supply–demand
mismatch; with cross-border goods trade facing greater friction, resolving the
impasse may depend on outbound financial flows.
