After six months of conflict-driven market volatility, U.S. maritime blockades
and tighter sanctions have materially curtailed Iranian oil exports and access
to foreign exchange, leaving Tehran under one of the gravest economic squeezes
in its history, according to Iranian and regional sources. U.S. and regional
officials judge the pain could compel Iran to allow free navigation through the
Strait of Hormuz, arguing Iran’s economic losses now exceed the disruption it
can inflict. Measures to choke exports have reduced government revenue, and
Tehran’s attempts to disrupt shipping have not triggered a sustained global
shock: oil markets have re-priced and alternative supplies continue to flow.
Iranian analyst Arash Aziz says the balance has tilted slightly against
Iran—Tehran cannot fully close the strait and U.S. maritime pressure is having
an effect. It is unclear whether the pressure will force concessions; Tehran has
not abandoned its demands, but mediators are reportedly discussing a new
proposal to break the impasse.
