Wars in West Asia and Europe and a refinery shift to higher‑margin products have intensified a fuel oil supply shortage. Kpler data show Middle East fuel oil exports fell 45% YoY from March–August to an average 447k b/d. Energy Aspects forecasts a 218k b/d Q3 fuel oil supply deficit — its first projected shortage since Q3 2025, when the gap was 6k b/d. Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are all tightening, but rising diesel crack spreads are prompting refiners to maximize diesel and gasoline yields a

Wars in West Asia and Europe and a refinery shift to higher‑margin products have intensified a fuel oil supply shortage. Kpler data show Middle East fuel oil exports fell 45% YoY from March–August to an average 447k b/d. Energy Aspects forecasts a 218k b/d Q3 fuel oil supply deficit — its first projected shortage since Q3 2025, when the gap was 6k b/d. Gasoline, diesel and jet fuel are all tightening, but rising diesel crack spreads are prompting refiners to maximize diesel and gasoline yields and to upgrade heavy residues via secondary processing rather than supply them as fuel oil, further reducing bunker availability and pushing bunker fuel prices higher, market participant Sunil Reddy said.