Citigroup maintains buy on BYD (01211.HK) and sets a HK$142 target price. The bank expects H2 overseas monthly sales to stabilize at 180k–200k units, targets 2.5m overseas units in 2027, assumes ~20,000 yuan per-unit profit for exports and a long-term domestic market share of about 25%. Citigroup forecasts Q3 core net ~13.0 bln yuan, based on domestic sales of 752k (2,200 yuan per-unit core profit) and exports of 568k (20,000 yuan per unit); higher volumes should reduce depreciation and R&D cost

Citigroup maintains buy on BYD (01211.HK) and sets a HK$142 target price. The bank expects H2 overseas monthly sales to stabilize at 180k–200k units, targets 2.5m overseas units in 2027, assumes ~20,000 yuan per-unit profit for exports and a long-term domestic market share of about 25%. Citigroup forecasts Q3 core net ~13.0 bln yuan, based on domestic sales of 752k (2,200 yuan per-unit core profit) and exports of 568k (20,000 yuan per unit); higher volumes should reduce depreciation and R&D costs per vehicle by ~2,000 yuan QoQ. Assuming Q4 domestic sales of 803k and exports of 607k with unchanged per-unit profits, Citigroup projects Q4 core net of ~13.9 bln yuan. The bank cautions September funding flows may not support auto OEMs or BYD due to lower export tax rebates, EU tariffs and component-localization requirements for Chinese NEVs, seasonal domestic demand/order uncertainty, and a rotation into AI-related investments; it retains the buy rating and HK$142 PT.