BlackRock strategists say intensified capital competition means Japan’s rate reset is spilling across borders. They outline a bond-market feedback loop: rising U.S. rates could weaken the yen and pressure the Bank of Japan to act sooner; higher Japanese yields could pull capital home, reducing demand for U.S. Treasuries and raising U.S. borrowing costs. Decades of ultra-low domestic yields made Japan a major capital exporter; Japanese holders now own about $1.1trn of U.S. Treasuries. A 5% repatr

BlackRock strategists say intensified capital competition means Japan’s rate reset is spilling across borders. They outline a bond-market feedback loop: rising U.S. rates could weaken the yen and pressure the Bank of Japan to act sooner; higher Japanese yields could pull capital home, reducing demand for U.S. Treasuries and raising U.S. borrowing costs. Decades of ultra-low domestic yields made Japan a major capital exporter; Japanese holders now own about $1.1trn of U.S. Treasuries. A 5% repatriation would be roughly $55bn — about one-quarter of last year’s foreign net purchases of U.S. Treasuries.