Prediction market Polymarket prices a Sep 25bp Fed hike at 54%; rate derivatives imply 63.6% — roughly a 10pp gap but same direction. Resilient employment, rising oil-driven inf risk and a hawkish Fed tilt have moved a Sep hike from tail risk to the primary market scenario. More than 50% odds do not guarantee a hike: markets still assign 36–47% probability of no change and any Fed decision could trigger re-pricing. Friday's inf release will be decisive; a REUTERS SURVEY shows 70% of economists e

Prediction market Polymarket prices a Sep 25bp Fed hike at 54%; rate derivatives imply 63.6% — roughly a 10pp gap but same direction. Resilient employment, rising oil-driven inf risk and a hawkish Fed tilt have moved a Sep hike from tail risk to the primary market scenario. More than 50% odds do not guarantee a hike: markets still assign 36–47% probability of no change and any Fed decision could trigger re-pricing. Friday's inf release will be decisive; a REUTERS SURVEY shows 70% of economists expect no hike, underlining the lack of consensus between institutional forecasts and trading markets.