临近中期选举，特朗普周三晚间再次用发钱吸引选民，承诺若共和党赢得两院，将向每位美国成年人发放5000美元，副总统万斯称资金可来自关税，这引发了不少担忧： 1、若仅覆盖约2.4亿成年公民，财政成本约1.2万亿美元，相当于2025财年1.8万亿美元赤字的约三分之二。但耶鲁预算实验室估算，现行关税未来10年总收入约1.9万亿美元，年均收入远不足以覆盖一次性红利，因此大概率需要新增举债，美国公众持有债务也将进一步上升。 2、经济层面，5000美元约相当于全职工人年收入中位数的8%。若其中能有超过60%转为居民消费，可能显著刺激消费需求，但也会加大通胀压力。目前通胀约3.4%，美联储本月加息概率约60%，货币政策收紧可能部分抵消财政刺激效果。 3、政治上，该方案还需国会批准，而预测市场显示共和党同时赢得参众两院的概率仅约15%，实际落地仍存在较大不确定性。

Money markets price the ECB's December deposit rate at 2.80%, up from 2.74% before the ECB statement — a 6bp increase.

Major banks and a Reuters survey largely expect the ECB to deliver a 25bp hike at the upcoming meeting; markets will be watching forward guidance and odds of further tightening more than the decision itself. Goldman Sachs: base case 25bp and end of this tightening cycle after September, but risk of a December hike rises if energy prices stay high, inflation re-accelerates or the Fed tightens further. ING: expects a 25bp hike but characterizes it as dovish — post-hike signals likely insufficient to justify market-priced further tightening. Société Générale: 25bp with a relatively hawkish stance to counter energy-driven inflation. Reuters survey: 25bp then a stop, with the deposit rate staying at 2.50% through end‑2026. Danske Bank: 25bp; Lagarde will keep flexibility without committing to a path and is unlikely to explicitly try to suppress tightening expectations. Deutsche Bank: 25bp and a further hike in December is likely; 2.75% is a more probable terminal rate unless geopolitics ease and growth weakens, which could cap rates at 2.5%. Natixis: 25bp, followed by neutral messaging to avoid implying a long hike cycle; expects a pause until end‑2027. RABOBANK: 25bp with more restrained guidance and no push toward a ~3% terminal rate. SEB: 25bp and likely the last hike of the cycle, though uncertainty remains; persistently above‑target inflation is unlikely, supporting a prolonged pause. BNP Paribas SA: sees potential hikes in September and December if growth and inflation forecasts are revised up at the September meeting. MUFG: 25bp fully priced; market reaction will hinge on forward guidance — lack of clear support for a year‑end hike would likely weaken the euro. State Street Global: ECB may pair a 25bp increase with intentionally open signals; key questions are whether 2.50% is judged sufficiently restrictive and whether the bank preserves policy space for December.