Kamil Kovar at Moody's Analytics said the ECB could raise rates again after Thursday's hike. He noted the bank did not rule out another increase this year and that upward revisions to 2027-28 inflation forecasts, plus the Governing Council's comment that the economy remains resilient despite this year's energy-price spike, leave the Council open to further tightening and raise the odds of a third hike; Moody's currently assigns about a 50% probability even if energy prices retreat from this week

由于美伊战争令投资者担忧能源驱动型通胀，日股、韩股、澳股、台股和港股指数小幅下跌。周三，美国袭击了五艘伊朗原油运输船后，油价自6月以来首次突破每桶100美元大关。伊朗随后以导弹袭击驻约旦美军和袭击船只进行报复。ATFX Global 的首席市场策略师Nick Twidale表示，那些因为寄希望于中东和平协议达成而暂缓抛售股票的交易员，现在可能“随着冲突长期化的现实逐渐显现而触发抛售操作”。由于美国和伊朗在霍尔木兹海峡附近互相发动袭击，而沙特又与也门武装陷入冲突，这场危机似乎没有结束的希望。

Euro-area government bond yields held near multi-year highs on Thursday as investors awaited the European Central Bank policy decision. Analysts expect a 25bp hike, no fresh guidance and a reiteration of data dependence. Germany’s 10-year yield rose 0.5bp to 3.44% after touching 3.4514%, its highest since April 2011. Some market participants say rate-hike expectations may be overdone because energy-driven growth drag could help curb inflation; they warn that a dovish ECB tone could send borrowing costs sharply lower. Traders price the ECB deposit rate at 2.74% by December, up from 2.25% today—implying two more 25bp hikes—and expect 3.10% by Sept 2027, fully pricing a third hike and implying roughly a 40% chance of a fourth. A strategist at a German commercial bank, Erik Liem, said Lagarde’s response to recent bond moves will be watched closely and that even a small dovish hint could have a large market impact today.