1、衡量包括能源、金属、粮食等一篮子商品价格走势的BCOM上个月大涨超8%（红框处），对于容易受到能源、粮食价格影响的整体CPI和PPI数据来说，是一个强助攻，不过剔除了这两项的核心通胀数据来说，影响相对小一些。 2、由于年内大宗商品持续上涨，尤其是6月末以来再次飙升，商品涨价的影响会逐步扩散到其他领域，进而有可能推高美联储和其他各国央行更为关注的核心通胀数据。

The ECB raised the deposit rate 25bps to 2.50% on Thursday — its second hike since the Iran war broke out in February — saying inflation will remain well above the 2% target for an extended period. The move was in line with expectations of almost all economists surveyed. The bank reiterated it will not pre-commit to further action and will decide on a meeting-by-meeting basis. ECB said the Middle East conflict continues to add inflationary pressure; the outlook is highly uncertain, with upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth. Thursday’s step leaves euro-area policymakers further ahead of peers in responding to an energy-price surge that has produced the fastest inflation in nearly three years. Traders expect two more ECB hikes by mid-2027. By contrast, the Fed and the Bank of England have not tightened in response to the Middle East hostilities and may remain on hold next week.

Overnight U.S. indexes slipped and the China Dragon Index fell sharply. Hong Kong opened sharply lower: Hang Seng opened down 289 pts at 24,985, immediately lost the 25,000 level and its 100‑day moving average, and plunged as much as 385 pts to 24,889. At midday Hang Seng was down 1.29%, Hang Seng TECH down 2.07%; turnover HKD 105.86 billion. Application software, power‑equipment, heavy‑machinery and semiconductor‑equipment names retreated; pharmaceuticals and pork stocks were weak. Autos, tea chains and online retail extended multi‑day declines. Printing & packaging and storage/memory concepts led gains, while ports & shipping, mainland banks and China brokers rose. Notable movers: 02513.HK down nearly 8%; 00100.HK down nearly 7%; NIO (09866.HK) down about 5%; Alibaba (09988.HK) and Meituan (03690.HK) each down over 3%. China Unicom (00762.HK) +2.5%; China Life Insurance (02628.HK) +2%; 01347.HK +2%.