ECB President Lagarde said the earlier euro-yen joint intervention amounted to €500 million.

Major banks and a Reuters survey largely expect the ECB to deliver a 25bp hike at the upcoming meeting; markets will be watching forward guidance and odds of further tightening more than the decision itself. Goldman Sachs: base case 25bp and end of this tightening cycle after September, but risk of a December hike rises if energy prices stay high, inflation re-accelerates or the Fed tightens further. ING: expects a 25bp hike but characterizes it as dovish — post-hike signals likely insufficient to justify market-priced further tightening. Société Générale: 25bp with a relatively hawkish stance to counter energy-driven inflation. Reuters survey: 25bp then a stop, with the deposit rate staying at 2.50% through end‑2026. Danske Bank: 25bp; Lagarde will keep flexibility without committing to a path and is unlikely to explicitly try to suppress tightening expectations. Deutsche Bank: 25bp and a further hike in December is likely; 2.75% is a more probable terminal rate unless geopolitics ease and growth weakens, which could cap rates at 2.5%. Natixis: 25bp, followed by neutral messaging to avoid implying a long hike cycle; expects a pause until end‑2027. RABOBANK: 25bp with more restrained guidance and no push toward a ~3% terminal rate. SEB: 25bp and likely the last hike of the cycle, though uncertainty remains; persistently above‑target inflation is unlikely, supporting a prolonged pause. BNP Paribas SA: sees potential hikes in September and December if growth and inflation forecasts are revised up at the September meeting. MUFG: 25bp fully priced; market reaction will hinge on forward guidance — lack of clear support for a year‑end hike would likely weaken the euro. State Street Global: ECB may pair a 25bp increase with intentionally open signals; key questions are whether 2.50% is judged sufficiently restrictive and whether the bank preserves policy space for December.

Euro area ECB marginal lending facility rate at Sep 10: 2.90% (consensus 2.90%; prior 2.65%).