A survey of 52 Bank of Japan watchers shows a Sept rate hike next week is fully
expected (100%), and about 93% forecast a further hike by January (roughly
one-third in Dec, the rest in Jan), indicating a clear acceleration of policy
normalization. Views have swung sharply since July, when no respondents expected
a Sept move. Upside inf risks and repeated calls for action from U.S. Treasury
Secretary BESSENT helped fuel expectations for a Sept increase. Totan Institute
chief economist Kato said the BOJ may signal roughly three-month intervals
between hikes and markets will watch how strongly it hints it could act more
frequently. About 46% expect an approximately quarterly pace, 36% expect a 4–5
month cadence, and the share expecting semiannual moves fell from 82% in July to
6%.
