Sources say the Bank of Japan will likely raise its policy rate by 25bp next week to 1.25%, a 31-year high. The move, coming three months after June’s hike, signals an acceleration of tightening; the BOJ may flag it would speed further if inflationary pressure rises. Officials expect financial conditions would remain accommodative even at 1.25%. Markets will focus on Governor Ueda’s post-meeting remarks for guidance on the pace of future hikes and the likely terminal rate. Sources say the BOJ ha

Sources say the Bank of Japan will likely raise its policy rate by 25bp next week to 1.25%, a 31-year high. The move, coming three months after June’s hike, signals an acceleration of tightening; the BOJ may flag it would speed further if inflationary pressure rises. Officials expect financial conditions would remain accommodative even at 1.25%. Markets will focus on Governor Ueda’s post-meeting remarks for guidance on the pace of future hikes and the likely terminal rate. Sources say the BOJ has no preset view of the terminal rate—it will depend on how past hikes affect the economy and how much firms pass higher costs to households—and there is no internal consensus on the speed of tightening. Ueda is expected to avoid a firm timetable but may repeat July’s warning that the BOJ could quicken hikes if financial conditions are judged too loose.