欧洲企业二季度盈利同比增长约16%，为三年来最快；制造业PMI在连续三年收缩后重新回到扩张区间，银行也受益于利率正常化和信贷周期回升。这意味着欧洲相对美股约16倍对20倍的估值折价，开始获得盈利和经济数据支撑。其金融、工业、能源和消费板块权重较高，也能为资金提供降低美国科技与AI集中度的选择。

英国央行：Savanta8月调查显示，未来一年通胀预期为3.2%。

The European Central Bank raised its inflation forecasts for 2027 and 2028, citing continued inflationary pressure from the Middle East war. ECB staff now project overall inflation at 2.5% in 2027 and 2.1% in 2028, up from 2.3% and 2.0% in the June projections; this year’s forecast remains 3.0%. Core inflation excluding energy and food was nudged up 0.1pp to 2.6% in 2027 and 2.3% in 2028; core for this year stays at 2.5%. The ECB said inflation risks are tilted to the upside and that inflation will remain well above target for an extended period.