Markets price in roughly a 90% chance of a Fed rate hike next week.

The Trump administration said it will send $500 payments to nearly 1 million Americans it says were overcharged buying coverage on federal Affordable Care Act exchanges. The White House said the checks will be mailed in October, before midterm elections, and attributed the payments to a surplus accumulated during the Biden administration while accusing higher premiums of producing excess user charges. The refunds are estimated by the White House to cost about $500 million. The payments could exacerbate public concerns about inflation and the expanding budget deficit and public debt. Trump has long sought to repeal the ACA and has proposed directly subsidizing individuals to buy insurance rather than paying insurers.

China’s State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR) launched a nationwide campaign in May to remove bottlenecks to a unified market and fair competition and reports positive results. SAMR pushed local standards-management reform across 31 provincial-level jurisdictions, abolishing more than 7,400 local standards by end‑June. It reviewed filings for over 15,000 certification rules, refusing registration for rules that impede fair competition and removing a batch of low-quality, inefficient rules. Next steps include stepping up enforcement against abuse of administrative power to exclude or restrict competition and concentrating investigations on a number of cases SAMR says hinder efficient economic circulation and the construction of a unified national market.