花旗预计美联储将在九月加息，并将在2027年中期前进行降息。

US core CPI rose 0.3% MoM and 2.4% YoY in August, stronger than expected; headline CPI climbed 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, driven by higher energy. Officials said progress toward the Fed’s inflation goal was limited amid pressure from the Iran conflict, tariffs and data-center construction. Some Fed officials had signalled the Sep 15-16 policy decision would hinge on incoming data; this print is likely to boost odds of the first rate hike in three years. Investors increased rate-hike bets, US Treasury yields rose and equity futures remained elevated. Fed chair Kevin Warsh has stayed noncommittal on next steps. Oil topped $100/bbl this week and US retail diesel hit a record, reflecting supply strains from the Middle East conflict and the Russia-Ukraine war.

IEA月报：目前预计，海湾产油国的石油供应全面恢复将推迟至2027年。