China International Capital Co raised its 4Q26 central Brent forecast to $85/bbl
from $80/bbl in June. The research note cites a slower-than-expected Middle East
crude restart since Q3 and a recent escalation in regional tensions that are
prompting markets to re-price the persistence of Middle East supply losses,
lifting the oil supply floor. End-user demand remains weak and summer recovery
should not be linearly extrapolated; if oil tops $100/bbl a demand peak could
emerge. The revision reflects a more persistent supply shortfall and lower
inventories. In product markets, near-term crude and freight increases are
compressing Eurasian refining margins; gasoline cracks face downside pressure
from current high levels, while overseas diesel shows structural tightness and
crack resilience.
