BNP Paribas SA expects the Fed funds rate to rise into Q1 2027, with three hikes between Sep 2026 and Jan 2027. The bank cites healthy growth, persistent fiscal deficits and a surge in very large corporate issuance as upward pressure on long-term yields, which should flatten the yield curve. Analysts say the small tightening cycle should peak in Q1 2027, after which markets will digest Fed credibility and push yields modestly lower from Q2 2027.

A former senior CIA official and military analyst said recent Houthi advances have put the US in a bind: if Washington cannot back Saudi Arabia, Riyadh may be driven to reconcile with Iran to offset a sharp drop in oil exports. He called the Houthis Iran’s most effective proxy, able to withstand strikes by Saudi Arabia, the UAE and the US. Monday’s Oman meeting on the Strait of Hormuz was cancelled — a key signal that may reflect a US request to delay while consulting Saudi Arabia on a coordinated response.

The 18th BRICS summit opened Saturday and on day one adopted a 45-page New Delhi Declaration and backed a payment architecture intended to route cross-border trade outside the Western-dominated financial system. The declaration commits members to expand trade and investment settlement in their domestic currencies and to link national payment and messaging systems so transactions need not be routed via the dollar-denominated SWIFT network. A BRICS payment working group reviewed cross-border interoperability and the use of local-currency settlement and investment. The principal mechanism highlighted is BRICS Pay, a decentralized payment-messaging framework designed to stitch India’s UPI and Russia’s SPFS into a shared interoperability layer to clear payments outside SWIFT. Leaders characterized the move as incremental for most members; for Iran—subject to US comprehensive sanctions, a maritime blockade and roughly six months of conflict with the US and Israel—the arrangement is closer to a lifeline. India’s prime minister Modi said no member objected to the text.