China International Capital Co research says near-term overseas shocks still
need to be digested: Middle East geopolitical risk persists and Fed credibility
will take time to repair. September is the seasonal peak for US investment-grade
issuance, which could push credit supply higher and prevent a rapid fall in
Treasury yields. Global liquidity is overall tight, increasing the likelihood of
wider risk-asset volatility. Key near-term drivers to watch are the Sept FOMC,
oil moves tied to geopolitical uncertainty, and US midterm election effects. The
firm views external shocks to A-shares as largely temporary and says the
medium-term market trend remains intact; the longer-term steady-uptrend since
Sept. 24 is likely to continue.
