9月14日，巴菲特指数（沪深300市值/GDP）回落至91.11%，近期一直维持窄幅波动状态。股债性价比指标——沪深300指数股权风险溢价（ERP）为5.75%，维持在2025年8月15日的高点水平附近；从大周期来看该指标从过去五年波动区间下端逐步向中间区域靠近，暗示目前股市相对国债收益的优势有所上升，回归中性水平。 -------- 注：1、巴菲特指数是通过将股市总市值和GDP来比较，判断目前股市是否高估，通常70-100%为正常估值，低于该区间为低估，高于该区间为高估。2、沪深300指数风险溢价（ERP）主要对比沪深300收益和国债收益率，统计近10年数据可以发现该指标和股指有明显反向关系，每次股市都处于底部区域时，风险溢价均超过6%，也就是当ERP≥6%，股市有投资性价比，而当ERP≤4%时，则股市往往接近或处于阶段性高点，投资性价比低甚至要小心回调风险。

US Treasury yields rose sharply as higher oil prices rekindled inflation concerns amid strong US growth, heavy debt issuance and widening fiscal strain. Citigroup says 20-year Treasuries offer an attractive risk-reward for investors able to tolerate further volatility. Citigroup rates strategist Jason Williams says a Treasury put would strengthen if yields breach 5.3%, reflecting market expectations policymakers would act to curb a rapid rise; he adds that, unless KEVIN WARSH muddles messaging at this week’s press conference, shorts are unlikely to drive yields above that level. Markets price a Fed rate hike this week; Citigroup says the Fed chair need not adopt an overtly hawkish tone. Williams also notes corporate pension and fixed-income rebalancing demand would provide an additional layer of support once yields exceed 5.3% by allowing plans to lock higher returns against liabilities.

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