ICICI Securities' primary dealers and IDFC First Bank forecast India's benchmark
10-year government bond yield could breach its May 2026 high and rise to 7.25%
by Dec 31, a three-year peak. Citigroup has moved up its expectation for a
Reserve Bank of India rate hike from December to October. Traders warn the RBI's
withdrawal of excess system cash, alongside rising inflation and a global
bond-market selloff, could trigger a sustained downturn. Ashhish Vaidya, head of
funds for DBS Group in Mumbai, said: "The outlook is chaotic; it's hard to judge
the yield peak. Conditions have clearly changed; traders are repositioning for
tougher supply and higher inflation."
