Markets no longer fully price in the Bank of England delivering four consecutive 25bp rate hikes.

Federal Reserve voters are divided on policy ahead of September. Dovish/softer signals: Governor Bowman said a prolonged rise in oil prices increases the likelihood of reassessing the risk balance. Chair Powell called policy at the high end of neutral or mildly restrictive, noting a firmer labor market and “somewhat unruly” inflation, and said holding may be appropriate. President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson said they want more incoming data; Jefferson added policy is well positioned to support the labor market while guiding inflation toward 2%. Governor Barr flagged a September re‑examination and said if inflation hasn’t slowed sufficiently he would favor decisive hikes. Governor Waller said give disinflation time and he is willing to wait to see improvement. Governor Paulson said properly calibrated policy should produce more signs of disinflation but persistent core upside would warrant tighter policy. Hawkish signals: Kevin Warsh said policymakers must be sure core inflation is falling clearly and fast enough or “we have work to do.” Hammack said now is the time to act. Governor Cook said he would support hikes if necessary but they may not be required. Logan warned that without policy restraint inflation could remain above target absent a shock. Kashkari identified the Iran conflict as a material upward driver of inflation and said a prolonged conflict would reduce confidence inflation will return to target.

美国财长贝森特：解决赤字问题是影响10年期国债收益率的一个因素。