Federal Reserve FOMC economic projections: median unemployment rate for 2029 at 4.1%.

Markets will watch whether Wosh clarifies the vague, evasive answers that roiled markets in July; Natixis analysts expect him to frame any rate increase as necessary to return inflation to target. Inflation narrative will be pivotal: if Wosh treats energy and tariff-driven inflation as one-off supply shocks, markets may ease hawkish pricing; if he highlights second-round effects or inflation expectations, tightening risk will rise. His handling of political sensitivity matters — expect scrutiny of any response to Trump’s calls for rate cuts, emphasis on FOMC independence, and whether he stresses data-dependence or avoids naming the president. Watch for changes to his communication posture after a hawkish turn at Jackson Hole and a history of limited forward-rate commentary; renewed insistence on zero tolerance for inflation would lift rate repricing. With the 10y UST yield already above 5% (Sept. 14), traders will also look for comments on further sell-offs and on fiscal- or inflation-risk premia in bond markets.

1. 三年来首次加息25个基点，符合市场预期 2. 投票比例为一致通过（7月为9-3） 3. 点阵图：2026年加息两次，2027年不加息，较6月偏鹰，较市场预期偏鸽 （6月点阵图预期2026年加息一次，2027年降息一次；决议前市场预期到2027年6月将累计加息4次） 4. 经济预期：上调今明两年经济预期 5. 通胀预期：上调今年的通胀和核心通胀预期 6. 失业率预期：下调2026-2028年失业率预期 7. 声明措辞：加息将支持通胀“更及时”回归2%的目标。