LPL Financial chief economist Jeffrey Roach said Fed Chair KEVIN WARSH and other C.BANK members have built a reputation for focusing on curbing inf. Given current economic conditions, the C.BANK has done what was required. If geopolitical tensions ease, discussion of inf may shift to the degree of improvement.

Federal Reserve voters are divided on policy ahead of September. Dovish/softer signals: Governor Bowman said a prolonged rise in oil prices increases the likelihood of reassessing the risk balance. Chair Powell called policy at the high end of neutral or mildly restrictive, noting a firmer labor market and “somewhat unruly” inflation, and said holding may be appropriate. President Williams and Vice Chair Jefferson said they want more incoming data; Jefferson added policy is well positioned to support the labor market while guiding inflation toward 2%. Governor Barr flagged a September re‑examination and said if inflation hasn’t slowed sufficiently he would favor decisive hikes. Governor Waller said give disinflation time and he is willing to wait to see improvement. Governor Paulson said properly calibrated policy should produce more signs of disinflation but persistent core upside would warrant tighter policy. Hawkish signals: Kevin Warsh said policymakers must be sure core inflation is falling clearly and fast enough or “we have work to do.” Hammack said now is the time to act. Governor Cook said he would support hikes if necessary but they may not be required. Logan warned that without policy restraint inflation could remain above target absent a shock. Kashkari identified the Iran conflict as a material upward driver of inflation and said a prolonged conflict would reduce confidence inflation will return to target.

美联储加息25个基点，现货黄金短线下挫超50美元，现报4317.65美元/盎司。