Huatai Securities says after the Fed’s September hike, December is likely the next substantive policy window and whether the Fed reopens a rate-hike cycle will depend on further data and officials’ remarks. Markets currently price a >50% chance of an October move, but Huatai judges the need for an October hike reduced given a waning fiscal impulse, oil-driven weakness in household consumption, tighter financial conditions and the prospect that employment and inflation may cool over the next 1–2

Huatai Securities says after the Fed’s September hike, December is likely the next substantive policy window and whether the Fed reopens a rate-hike cycle will depend on further data and officials’ remarks. Markets currently price a >50% chance of an October move, but Huatai judges the need for an October hike reduced given a waning fiscal impulse, oil-driven weakness in household consumption, tighter financial conditions and the prospect that employment and inflation may cool over the next 1–2 months. Huatai’s base case is for another hike in December. The Fed’s 2027 path will hinge on incoming economic data—especially whether the labour market sustains improvement that drives wage growth and on subsequent inflation dynamics.