China International Capital Co (CICC) says the Fed is more likely to pause than hike, leaving markets positioned like long-call bets on uncertain upside. Using a static model of US Treasury yields and the dollar, CICC estimates gold support around $4,200–$4,500. Unless the Fed delivers consecutive hikes, downside pressure on gold is relatively contained; meaningful upside, however, requires a broader narrative. A Fed pause could feed narratives of lost confidence and de‑dollarization, while hike

China International Capital Co (CICC) says the Fed is more likely to pause than hike, leaving markets positioned like long-call bets on uncertain upside. Using a static model of US Treasury yields and the dollar, CICC estimates gold support around $4,200–$4,500. Unless the Fed delivers consecutive hikes, downside pressure on gold is relatively contained; meaningful upside, however, requires a broader narrative. A Fed pause could feed narratives of lost confidence and de‑dollarization, while hikes would weaken that storyline, so upside is larger under no-hike scenarios and dependent on further narrative catalysts.