Sept 16 — WTI (USO) nominal exposure about 21.25 mln barrels, up 0.64 mln barrels on the day; Brent (BNO) futures-linked holdings about 7.28 mln barrels, up 0.27 mln barrels. Full holdings available to track fund flows beyond crude price moves.

Market pricing and policy risk: Markets largely price a 25bp Fed hike in September, with a failure to raise seen as a significant dovish surprise. Vote dynamics: watch for dissent risk — the meeting could see votes for holding or for a larger 50bp increase rather than a unanimous decision. Inflation narrative: how the FOMC frames energy’s contribution to inflation — as a temporary shock or more persistent — will shape whether any hike is viewed as one-off. Dot plot and rate path: if the Fed hikes 25bp, focus on whether the dot plot implies additional hikes this year and whether hikes resume in 2027; the June SEP showed one hike in 2026 and a cut in 2027. Projections and guidance: monitor whether the Fed again omits or alters forward-rate projections and whether the Summary of Economic Projections revises inflation, growth or unemployment forecasts to justify policy moves. Press‑conference topics likely to move markets: the rationale for any hike and whether more are planned; assessment of long-end yields and Treasury buyback/issuance operations; views on potential U.S.-Japan joint intervention in the yen; any private communications with the White House and potential public political reaction; the Fed’s view on AI-related risks; and progress on five Fed working groups.

据沙特阿拉比亚电视台：马来西亚总统表示，任何试图袭击麦加的行为都绝对不可接受。