Analysts expect the Bank of England's MPC to keep the policy rate at 3.75%, likely maintaining July's 6-3 split with three members voting for a hike. Recent BoE commentary shows no clear hawkish shift and inflation is still judged controllable. Energy is the main upside risk: gas prices have already exceeded the BoE's adverse Q4 peak assumption, raising the chance officials become more alert to inflation upside; a hawkish turn would flip the vote to 5-4. By contrast, another 6-3 split combined w

Analysts expect the Bank of England's MPC to keep the policy rate at 3.75%, likely maintaining July's 6-3 split with three members voting for a hike. Recent BoE commentary shows no clear hawkish shift and inflation is still judged controllable. Energy is the main upside risk: gas prices have already exceeded the BoE's adverse Q4 peak assumption, raising the chance officials become more alert to inflation upside; a hawkish turn would flip the vote to 5-4. By contrast, another 6-3 split combined with cautious guidance would likely weigh on sterling. Markets will focus on the vote tally and inflation wording to judge whether energy developments are driving policy toward tightening.