日经225指数9月18日（周五）开盘上涨394.85点，涨幅0.62%，报64531.10点。

Shenzhen Composite Index rose more than 2%, led by semiconductors; component stock Xingchen Technology jumped over 11%.

Most firms expect the BOJ to raise its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25% today; markets are focussing on forward guidance — a less hawkish signal would likely trigger yen weakness and pressure JGBs. Reuters survey: economists expect the policy rate to reach 1.50% by end-March next year and 1.75% by Q2 2027, with most seeing at least that terminal rate. Nikko expects 25bp to 1.25% and 1.75% by June 2027, with upside to 2.25% if oil rises and other central banks tighten. BNP sees 25bp now, then further hikes in Dec and next March to 1.75%. OCBC says the hike is largely priced; the key is the post-September path and whether the BOJ signals faster normalization while inflation remains elevated. Goldman says today’s move is certain and the next hike could come as early as December; high energy, strong AI-driven demand, a weaker yen and loose fiscal policy could push inflation and yields higher. TD Securities projects a path to 2.25% via hikes in Dec and several 2027 moves and warns that omission of Oct/Dec hikes from guidance could send USD/JPY to 157–160. Market pricing already implies ~90bp of tightening over the next 12 months; if Governor Ueda signals caution, that could leave the yen exposed. Overall market takeaway: 25bp hike probable; guidance tone will be the primary driver for near-term yen moves, JGB yields and expectations for further BOJ tightening.