Oriental Jincheng Research said September LPR quotes for both tenors were
unchanged, broadly meeting market expectations. LPR has stayed stable
year-to-date, supported by 1H GDP growth of 4.7% — inside the 4.5–5.0% annual
target — and accelerated expansion in high-tech manufacturing and other new
productive sectors. The firm said weaker investment and consumption since Q2 but
steady macro policy and an observation-stage monetary stance explain the lack of
a September adjustment. It judged the PBOC could implement policy rate cuts
later, which would likely prompt LPR cuts. The July 30 Politburo meeting called
for fuller use of stock policies, timely rollout of pragmatic incremental
measures, stronger countercyclical action and comprehensive, timely adjustment
of monetary policy tools; given economic and price trends, a new round of
incremental policies cannot be ruled out.
