CSC Financial says A-share market has entered a second-stage recovery. Middle
East geopolitical spillovers lifted oil and long-end UST yields earlier but that
phase has eased; oil and long-end UST yields have retreated. With domestic
easing on rates and a stable RMB, leadership is rotating back to earnings and
capital is returning to high-profitability sectors. Key risks: the persistence
of overseas rate and oil declines and external shocks around the FOMC meeting at
end-October. Recommended positioning: balanced, layered. Offensive overweight:
compute-capacity supply-constrained segments (optical chips, PCB manufacturing,
CCL, server OEMs) and industrial base metals (copper, aluminum, tin). Defensive
base: dividend-yielding assets as core ballast. Tactical: selective,
policy-driven domestic-demand opportunities in agriculture, medical aesthetics,
and textiles/apparel.
