UBS cut its 12-month KOSPI target to 8,000 from 8,800 in a note last Friday,
citing higher rates, a stronger won and rising oil. The revision lowers UBS’s
implied target P/E to 7x from 8x, reflecting deteriorating macro headwinds even
as UBS still forecasts robust KOSPI EPS growth of 256% in 2026 and 38% in 2027.
UBS said the index is likely to trade in a range until Q3–Q4 earnings provide
clearer signals on earnings sustainability and shareholder returns. Key drivers
cited: the 10-year Korean government bond yield has risen to 4.5% from 3.4% at
the start of the year (≈+110bps), the Bank of Korea has raised rates twice since
July, oil is trading above $100, and a stronger won is also a drag—UBS estimates
a 1% won appreciation trims KOSPI earnings by roughly 1.1%.
