伊朗议会议员拉希迪：总统访问纽约是展现伊朗实力的良好机会。总统及其团队首先应清晰阐述伊朗的坚定立场，向世界舆论展现一个强大伊朗的清晰形象，并充分阐明伊朗的实力。

Shenwan Hongyuan research says the core trading range for the 10-year US Treasury yield in H2 is likely 4.5%–5%, with inflation expectations linked to oil prices the dominant short-term driver. In an optimistic case yields could fall toward about 4.3%; in a downside case they could break above 5%. The dollar index is short-term positively correlated with oil during supply shocks—safe-haven flows and relative fundamentals tend to lift the dollar with oil—and would face further upside if a US‑Iran conflict escalates; after tensions ease the dollar’s core range could revert to 97–103. Dollar trend strength typically accompanies sustained Fed tightening; September’s hike is done, and if future moves are isolated rather than a trend tightening cycle, dollar appreciation risk is more contained. Medium-term, US term premium is likelier to rise than fall as risks shift from cyclical volatility to fiscal sustainability concerns; the Fed faces a threefold challenge of inflation persistence, weak employment, and automatic long-end tightening amid a global savings imbalance. Current US equity valuations are not low; larger or more persistent shocks would inflict greater downside on equity prices.

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