Derek Halpenny, head of FX research at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said in a note the near-term risk of further euro depreciation is rising. He cited weekend local-election losses for Chancellor Merz’s CDU, elevated energy prices and French political uncertainty as potential additional pressures. Technically the euro is weakening, breaking key levels. Halpenny added that while the move is currently driven more by US dollar strength, if adverse energy terms-of-trade shocks begin to dent corpo

Derek Halpenny, head of FX research at Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group, said in a note the near-term risk of further euro depreciation is rising. He cited weekend local-election losses for Chancellor Merz’s CDU, elevated energy prices and French political uncertainty as potential additional pressures. Technically the euro is weakening, breaking key levels. Halpenny added that while the move is currently driven more by US dollar strength, if adverse energy terms-of-trade shocks begin to dent corporate confidence the eurozone macro backdrop could deteriorate.