The inaugural China-Indonesia Strategic Community Dialogue met in Yogyakarta on the 21st–22nd with nearly 50 experts from think-tanks, universities and business; representatives from Indonesia’s Foreign Ministry and the Chinese embassy attended. Co-hosted by the China Institute of International Studies and Indonesia’s Centre for Strategic and International Studies, participants discussed deepening China‑Indonesia strategic cooperation, responses to shifts in the international order and global go

The OECD said the Bank of England can hold its policy rate at 3.75% until late 2027 and cut 25bp in Q3 next year, arguing policy is already sufficiently tight to restrain inflation. It warned the energy crisis is adding to global price pressures. The view contrasts with forecasts for the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan to tighten further in coming months. BoE Governor BAILEY this month warned households and firms that policy may have to tighten and projected inflation above 4% next year. Markets currently price four 25bp BoE hikes by end of next year. OECD chief economist Scarpetta said the UK’s starting point differs from other countries, noting the key rate is high enough to curb inflation and that UK inflation has run below OECD forecasts this year.

The dollar index rose to a near eight-week high as markets priced further Fed tightening. LSEG shows a 53% probability of a Fed rate hike in October and 78 bps of cumulative tightening priced by Sep 2027. Those rate expectations outweighed oil’s retreat on hopes of de-escalation in the Middle East.