The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Iraq's economy to contract 12% due to a decline in oil exports.

European gas prices rose in early trade as markets focused on stockpiles ahead of the winter heating season. Dutch TTF benchmark was up 3% at €74/MWh. Industry group Gas Infrastructure Europe said EU gas storage is 70% full, well below the seasonal average of 86%. US‑Iran diplomatic talks produced almost no substantive progress, adding to energy uncertainty. ANZ analysts said increased LNG flows into northwest Europe have eased some pressure but extensive Norwegian maintenance has cut pipeline supplies, limiting inventory buffers.

Politico, citing five sources, reports the Trump administration is drafting a 90-day diesel export pause intended to lower domestic diesel prices ahead of the midterms. The plan has provoked splits inside government and the oil sector; Energy Secretary Wright, Treasury Secretary Bessent and Interior Secretary Burgum oppose a full ban. Wright warned a simple export prohibition could force refiners to cut runs — because diesel is co-produced with gasoline and jet fuel — and raise other fuel prices. Recent US strikes on Iran and an attack on a Russian refinery have pushed diesel prices higher. Farm-state Republican pressure, including public support from Senator Chuck Grassley, has pushed the proposal; Trump is said to be inclined to announce measures before the weekend, but the decision remains subject to change.