ANZ expects the Reserve Bank of Australia to deliver 25bps hikes in both
September and November, with the September move lifting the cash rate to 4.60%.
September would be the fourth 25bps increase this year and take rates to around
a 15-year high; ANZ expects a further 25bps in November that would push rates to
levels not seen since 2008. The call is driven by stubborn inflation from
domestic demand outstripping supply and a recent U.S.-Iran conflict-driven spike
in oil and gas prices that has fed through into other sectors. ANZ says the RBA
is likelier to treat the oil-price rise as an inflation shock rather than a
growth shock, increasing the odds of two hikes rather than one.
