Iranian deputy foreign minister Araghchi said he expects a final US response to
Tehran’s Strait of Hormuz proposal to be transmitted via a Qatari intermediary
before Tuesday, signalling the diplomatic channel remains open. Oil initially
jumped more than $4 on Monday after Trump rejected Iran’s offer but later gave
back most gains as hopes for resumed talks resurfaced; prices rose again today
on lingering supply concerns. A US reply that signals negotiation progress could
prompt markets to quickly pare the Hormuz-related risk premium and weigh on
crude; a breakdown in talks would leave markets facing the same unresolved
supply risk seen in recent months.
