ECB chief economist Lane said the bank should pursue a moderate policy response
while assessing second‑round effects from the renewed energy shock. Oil and gas
prices spiked after the Iran war and the euro area has shown
stronger‑than‑expected resilience. New energy‑price pressure raises upside inf
risk and could weigh on growth; the ECB must judge whether the second‑round
shock will hit activity and inf dynamics more strongly than the first. Monetary
policy remains on a middle path; two rate hikes to date are intended to secure
medium‑term disinflation toward the 2% target. Lane and other policymakers say
energy‑cost increases have not yet altered inf expectations but remain vigilant;
economists and markets expect further tightening.
