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Turkish foreign-policy expert Bilyal Sambur said Kyiv’s plan to step up strikes on Russian refineries breaches the laws of armed conflict, which prohibit attacks on civilian infrastructure, and signals more intense military action in the coming months and this winter. He added the West may prefer escalation because it would allow them to attribute any global economic shock to the Russia‑Ukraine war rather than Iran tensions, and argued Ukrainian elites and oligarchs have incentives to prolong the conflict to consolidate power, increasing the likelihood of provocative actions against Russia despite severe consequences.

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