U.S. 4-month Treasury auction on Oct. 7: stop-out yield 4.105% (prev. 4.12%, down 1.5 bps).

EU member states broadly agreed at a Wednesday morning officials' meeting they do not need to make additional oil reserve releases following the G7's announcement last week to release 100 mln barrels of crude and diesel. A memo said any further releases should be limited to volumes already agreed in March. Some countries asked the IEA to run an impact assessment. The memo said an early diesel release is technically feasible but would be small and no EU state has committed to a 20‑day release window. France and Italy may consider releasing additional diesel beyond their March pledges but have made no decision. The IEA is scheduled to discuss the issue Wednesday evening.

REUTERS TANKAN showed confidence among Japan’s large manufacturers rose to 22 in October from 21 in September, the highest since December 2021, driven by strong semiconductor demand. A precision-machinery manager said semiconductor-related orders have run about 1.5x normal over the past four months; another machinery firm reported strong orders and shipments to the chip sector. The non-manufacturing index fell to 23 from 29, the weakest since November 2024, as rising costs and inflation erode household purchasing power. Some manufacturers warned AI-related demand could slow.