Japan Meteorological Agency says there is a 100% probability that the strongest El Nifio on record will persist into winter.

CITIC Securities says US-Iran talks have produced no major breakthrough. A rise in tanker security incidents in the Strait of Hormuz and higher transport costs, together with an escalation between Saudi Arabia and Houthi forces, have raised risks to regional energy infrastructure and Bab el‑Mandeb shipping, increasing uncertainty around crude supply and transport. The firm expects international oil prices to remain elevated and volatile for the remainder of 2026. Key market watches: negotiation progress, resumption of strait navigation and actual supply changes.

The Financial Times, citing people familiar with the matter, reports Trump pressed President Sheinbaum in mid-September to secure deals between Mexican firms and US energy companies, asked about possible sales of Mexican assets to US firms and discussed US–South Korea-style procurement arrangements and increased purchases of US energy. US officials discussed Mexico expanding imports of US natural gas to narrow Mexico's trade surplus; US gas already supplies roughly three-quarters of Mexico's gas demand. Mexico objected to the new energy demands, prompting postponement of formal trade talks slated for September; talks have not been rescheduled. Mexico seeks tariff relief on autos, steel and aluminium, but energy-sector national control is politically sensitive. US officials say negotiations remain active and contacts continue.