The S&P 500 closed at a record this week, but gains were concentrated in a
handful of AI beneficiaries, obscuring growing fragility in the U.S. economy and
financial markets. With less than a month to the midterm elections, a rally that
favours Republicans could become a political liability for Trump. Consumer,
travel, transportation, real estate and financial stocks have slipped; the
median S&P 500 constituent is down roughly 4.3% over the past month. On Tuesday
the index made a record while only 30% of constituents traded above their 50-day
moving averages — narrower breadth than the 1998–2000 internet bubble period,
when the most narrow record still had 41% above their 50-day averages. Strong
performances from Meta, Microsoft, NVIDIA and the semiconductor sector accounted
for most of the advance.