CITIC Securities says investor focus will shift to US Q3 earnings after US
equities showed some rate-decoupling over the domestic holiday. LSEG consensus
shows S&P 500 Q3 2026 revenue and EPS YoY growth of 1.2% and 45.0%,
respectively, with QoQ moderation. At the industry level, energy, information
technology, materials and healthcare all report YoY earnings growth above 50% —
indicating high earnings growth is no longer confined to leading tech names and
that non-tech contributions are rising materially. For Hong Kong stocks, higher
global rates plus renewed AI trading have kept liquidity under pressure, but
fundamentals appear to have bottomed and earnings-growth forecasts for major
broad indices are being revised up. Earnings revisions are highly divergent by
sector: some niche segments are being upgraded while domestic-demand exposed
sectors still face downward revisions. Q3 results will be the key test of any
recovery. CITIC recommends patient positioning in Hong Kong equities and expects
short-term dividend-focused strategies to relatively outperform.