Jinlianchuang: recent oil moves were mixed—IEA accelerated strategic releases,
prioritizing diesel, easing supply worries and pressuring futures, while
escalating Middle East tensions, tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz and a US
hurricane supported prices. Jinlianchuang estimates the change rate as of Oct.
12 (seventh business day) at -4.46%; reference crude basket $97.21/bl; implied
domestic gasoline/diesel down 230 yuan/ton. This is the 20th adjustment cycle of
2026; the price-reset window closes at 24:00 on Oct. 15—final retail direction
and size will depend on CHINA STATE PLANNER’s publication and the change rate
could still move. Market outlook: intraday international crude fell as investors
await US–Iran diplomatic developments; geopolitics keep prices range-bound with
high headline volatility. Domestic supply: independent refiners’ run rates are
expected to continue falling this week, major refiners’ runs may tick up
slightly; net effect likely limited swings in refined-fuel output.
