Goldman Sachs says planned Russian diesel releases would have limited global
price impact, while a potential 50 million-barrel release from European
strategic reserves could cut wholesale diesel prices on the US Gulf Coast and in
Europe by about $11/bbl. Analyst Eamonn Sheridan says diesel remains the most
stressed segment of the Iran-war energy shock and that relief depends on
government inventory releases rather than additional Russian supply. Goldman’s
simulation shows a European reserve release would deliver meaningful but
temporary relief, narrowing refining crack spreads and easing transport and
industrial cost pass-through to inflation. The bank’s broader view is product
markets stay tight through 2027, implying any diesel softening is likely
transient, crack spreads and refiners’ margins will remain elevated, and
persistent diesel tightness will keep refinery runs high, supporting crude even
if wider supply concerns ease.
